TCP/IP endures in the AI era because it has survived bigger threats before. In its early years, large incumbents pushed their own designs, including IBM’s Systems Network Architecture and the telecom industry’s Asynchronous Transfer Mode. Critics argued that packets with unpredictable delays could never carry anything reliable. Open, consensus-built TCP/IP simply kept working, and it won.
The big switch came on January 1, 1983, when ARPANET, the forerunner of the internet, moved every connected computer from its old NCP protocol to TCP/IP in one coordinated cutover. Engineers call a change like that a flag day, because old and new systems can’t talk to each other, so everyone has to move at once.
Success brought its own crises. Once the web took off, skeptics warned that ordinary users and images would clog the network into collapse. Fixes to how TCP handles congestion, developed in the late 1980s, kept that at bay, and they were rolled out with no central authority in charge of the internet.
Then came the address shortage. IPv4 uses 32-bit addresses, enough for about 4.3 billion devices, which once looked generous and then wasn’t nearly enough. IPv6, with vastly larger 128-bit addresses, was the long-term answer, but you can’t hold a flag day for billions of gadgets. Instead, a router trick called Network Address Translation (NAT), described in 1994 as a short-term fix, let a whole household of devices share one public address. Goodwins admits it’s ugly. It’s also why your home network still runs on IPv4.