PC shipments fall 20% in Q3 2026 as desktops plunge 23%

Three major research firms measured the drop slightly differently, but they tell the same story:

• IDC: 62.7 million PCs shipped, down 20.1% from 78.5 million a year earlier. That’s the biggest third-quarter decline IDC has ever recorded.
• Omdia: 58.1 million desktops, laptops and workstations shipped, down 21.2%, its sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2023.
• Gartner: 55.4 million units, down 22.4%, in preliminary figures.

The totals differ because each firm uses its own counting methods and estimates. All three agree the market is at levels last seen in early 2023.

It’s also unusual that shipments fell from the previous quarter. IDC counted 68.2 million PCs in the second quarter, so the third quarter came in 9.1% lower. Normally the third quarter is bigger. In the second quarter, the year-over-year decline had been just 3.8%.

Not quite. It’s the worst third quarter IDC has ever measured, but Ubrani pointed out that the market has seen bigger quarterly drops recently: 28.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 28.7% in the first quarter of 2023. Those came as sales fell back from pandemic-era highs, when millions of people bought computers to work and study from home.

The analysts also disagree on what is really behind this one. IDC puts much of the blame on early stockpiling. Gartner says the dynamics are different from 2023: rather than too much inventory, it points to higher prices, PC makers rationing scarce parts and a shift toward more expensive models. The likely answer is a mix of both, and both explanations point to the same result for shoppers, which is higher prices.

Omdia’s breakdown shows desktops, including desktop workstations, fell 23.5% to 11.7 million units. Laptops, including mobile workstations, fell 20.6% to 46.4 million.

Gartner says businesses are now targeting spending at specific needs such as workstations and AI PCs rather than replacing whole fleets of machines at once.

Memory is the big driver. Gartner says DRAM costs, the main type of computer memory, jumped fivefold year over year in the second quarter, and that cost is now fully baked into PC prices. Demand for memory from the AI data-center buildout is a big part of the squeeze.

There was also a timing effect. Many PC makers and stores bought extra stock early in 2026 to get ahead of the expected price hikes. That pulled sales forward into the first half of the year and left little demand for the third quarter. IDC’s Jitesh Ubrani said retailers and distributors are now nervous about sitting on piles of unsold machines while high prices scare shoppers off.

Gartner adds another twist: with components scarce, PC makers have prioritized pricier configurations, so cheaper laptops are harder to find. That makes simply replacing an old machine less affordable for ordinary buyers.

Every major brand shipped fewer computers, but not equally. IDC’s figures show:

• Lenovo: still No. 1 with 14.9 million units, down 22.6%.
• HP: down 30.9% to 10.3 million, the steepest fall among the top five. Gartner links that to HP’s heavy exposure to price-sensitive buyers.
• Dell: down 25% to 7.6 million.
• Apple: down 11.3% to 5.9 million Macs, but its market share rose from 8.5% to 9.5%.
• Asus: down just 8.6% to 5.5 million, the most resilient of the top five.

Put together, the three biggest Windows PC makers shed 4.2 points of combined share in a year. Apple and Asus gained ground even though they also shipped fewer machines. Apple’s Mac mini and Mac Studio had already faced supply constraints, so Mac buyers should check stock for specific models.

Don’t expect a price crash. IDC says sellers sitting on extra stock may run short-term promotions, but overall PC prices are expected to stay well above last year’s levels for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

A few practical steps:

• If your PC works fine, keeping it another year is a reasonable choice, especially if it still gets security updates.
• If you need one now, watch for holiday promotions, but compare the actual memory, storage and processor rather than the starting price, since cheap base models may be stripped down.
• If you are thinking of switching platforms, check that your apps, accessories and files will move over smoothly before chasing a deal.

The outlook isn’t bright yet. Ubrani warned that with economic conditions worsening, the next few quarters could get worse before they improve. The fourth quarter, which covers the holiday shopping season, is the next big test.