Vulcan rocket launch eyed for Oct. 29 as cadence could shift

The next Vulcan rocket launch was set for no earlier than October 29, according to the launch schedule published in early October. That flight, its return to flight, carries satellites for Amazon Leo, Amazon’s satellite internet network. A second Amazon Leo mission on Vulcan was also planned before the end of the year.

“No earlier than” is the key phrase. It is a target, not a promise, and launch dates often slip by days or weeks. As of late October, ULA had not publicly confirmed that the date still held, and reports at the time described the rocket as still grounded.

If both Amazon flights go well and the boosters behave, Vulcan could finally settle into a much busier launch rate in 2027, after years of slow progress.

The problem is in the strap-on solid rocket boosters, built by Northrop Grumman and known as GEM 63XL. On February 12, during the USSF-87 mission for the Space Force, the nozzle on one booster visibly failed shortly after liftoff. The rocket still made it to orbit, but it was the second nozzle problem in four flights. A similar issue showed up on Vulcan’s second certification flight in late 2024.

Military officials then paused defense payloads on Vulcan. ULA and Northrop Grumman have been running structural analysis and test firings to prove the nozzles are safe. The joint investigation board has not released its interim findings.

On Wednesday, October 21, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, who leads Space Systems Command, said six National Security Space Launch missions had been switched from ULA to SpaceX. He said the military is still confident Vulcan will return, but there is no official return date yet for defense flights.

ULA doesn’t lose those contracts outright. Under a mission trade arrangement, the time-sensitive military satellites fly on Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and Vulcan picks up later national security missions once it is cleared again. The Space Force had already moved the last GPS III navigation satellite to SpaceX for the same reason, so it wouldn’t sit in storage.

The grounding shows up in launch counts too. By late October, California had logged a record 72 launches this year, ahead of Florida’s 60, partly because Vulcan and Blue Origin’s New Glenn spent much of the year on the ground.

Months without flights hurt more for a company that lives almost entirely on launches. Launch is a thin-margin business: SpaceX, which went public this year, earned just 8 percent of its $12.5 billion first-half revenue from launch services, with most of the rest coming from Starlink and AI. Rivals such as Rocket Lab, Blue Origin and Firefly have branched into building satellites, landers and parts. ULA has largely stayed a pure launch company, which makes a reliable Vulcan even more important to its future.

For most people, the most direct impact is on satellite internet choice. Amazon Leo is building a network to rival SpaceX’s Starlink, and it needs many launches to get enough satellites in orbit for reliable service. Fewer working rockets means a slower rollout and less competition on price.

It also matters for national security satellites, including the GPS satellites behind the navigation in every phone and car. With Vulcan sidelined, the US is leaning even harder on one company to launch them.

Other rockets had a mixed week.

• South Korea’s Nuri: On its fifth flight, the homegrown rocket deployed five small Earth observation satellites for the country’s first domestically launched microsatellite constellation. Nine of 10 tiny CubeSat passengers deployed correctly, but one, from the startup Quaternion, stayed attached. It was Nuri’s fourth success in a row since its first flight failed in 2021, taking its record to 80 percent. Science Minister Bae Kyung-hoon promised more government support for private-sector launches.
• HyImpulse SR75: The German startup moved the second flight of its suborbital rocket from the end of 2026 to spring 2027. It said the delay reflects the remaining licensing work and the seasonal weather at the SaxaVord spaceport, not the rocket’s readiness.