Will iPhone prices go up again? Apple’s memory warning, decoded

The short answer is that Apple left the door open without walking through it. No executive named a product, a date or an amount for any new increase.

What they did say matters. Chief financial officer Kevan Parekh said Apple changed prices “reluctantly” this year, first on the iPad and Mac around June and then on the iPhone in September. He added that the company weighs short-term and long-term effects and believes it is striking the right balance. That’s careful language, and it describes a process Apple is still running, not one it has closed.

Ternus, meanwhile, said memory costs have risen every quarter and will go higher again in the December quarter. Apple says some of the pressure has been offset by those earlier price changes, by cheaper non-memory parts and by older inventory it bought at lower prices. Those cushions don’t last forever, and older stock in particular runs out.

The memory chips in phones and laptops (the RAM that runs apps and the storage that holds your photos) come from the same few suppliers that sell to AI data centers. As those suppliers steer more of their output toward AI servers, gadget makers get less supply and pay more for it.

Apple has been open about this all year. In June, Tim Cook said price increases were “unavoidable” and compared the memory squeeze to a hundred-year flood. Apple then raised prices on Macs, iPads and home products. The cheapest Mac mini effectively went from $599 to $799 when Apple dropped the entry model.

In September it was the iPhone’s turn. The iPhone 18 Pro launched at $1,199, $100 more than the iPhone 17 Pro, and the iPhone 18 Pro Max starts at $1,299. Bigger storage tiers jumped more: the 1TB models cost $300 more than last year, and the 2TB Pro Max costs $500 more. Apple also quietly raised prices on older models still on sale, including the Air, the 17e, the 17 and the 16.

Some outside estimates were far gloomier. TrendForce, a market research firm, had pencilled in a Pro increase of between $150 and $200, and TechInsights argued Apple would need about $270 more to keep its old margin. Apple chose a smaller hike and absorbed the rest, which is exactly why the margin numbers below matter.

Apple’s gross margin (the share of each sale left after the cost of making the product) was 47.9 percent in the September quarter. For the December quarter, Apple expects 45 to 46 percent, and it blamed higher memory costs plus the cost of running its new Siri AI features.

There’s a second catch. After the Supreme Court struck down many US tariffs in February, Apple received refunds that propped up its margins: about two percentage points in the June quarter and about one point in September. Parekh said Apple has now received the vast majority of those refunds. Strip them out, he said, and margins fell about a point from one quarter to the next, mainly because of memory.

Put simply, the hidden help is gone and the main cost keeps rising. A company in that position has three options: accept lower profits, cut costs elsewhere, or charge more. Apple has done all three this year, so further price moves on some products would not be a surprise. That’s our reading of the numbers, not something Apple confirmed.

The $1,999 iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable, has a different problem. It isn’t getting pricier, it’s just hard to buy. Chief operating officer Sabih Khan said on the call that the Duo is supply-limited, and that Apple can’t yet forecast when it will make enough to meet demand. Ternus repeated the point in an interview after the results.

Orders placed now show January delivery, and stores have had little stock for online reservations. Apple says it is deepening its work with titanium supplier Perryman to help with Duo materials, and Verizon has been handing out gift cards to customers hit by delays.

Ternus also addressed the inner-screen problems some owners have reported. He said only a very small share of units have been returned and Apple is offering replacements. Owners with a faulty display should contact AppleCare.

The squeeze isn’t limited to the Duo. Khan said Apple expects Mac and iPad supply to be tight this quarter, mainly because of memory, as demand has run higher than Apple planned.

For most people, the practical question is whether to buy now or wait. Here’s how we’d think about it:

• If you need a phone now, don’t wait for a price drop. Apple gave no sign that memory costs will ease soon, and it expects them to keep rising beyond this quarter.
• If you want lots of storage, note that high-capacity models took the biggest hikes in September. Buying the storage you’ll actually use, and leaning on iCloud for the rest, saves the most money.
• If you’re eyeing an older model, check today’s price against launch prices. Several older iPhones now cost more than they did when they came out.
• If you want the iPhone Duo, order early rather than hoping for store stock. Apple can’t say when supply will catch up, and January is the current estimate.
• If you’re in the UK or Canada, Apple didn’t give country-specific pricing plans on the call, so check your local Apple Store before you buy.

There’s also a cost that sits outside the phone itself. Ternus repeated that Apple plans usage limits on server-based AI features such as Siri AI and photo editing, with paid options for people who need more. Apple hasn’t shared prices or the limits for each iCloud+ plan yet.

So far, yes. iPhone revenue hit $57.6 billion in the September quarter, up 17 percent and a record for that quarter, even before any Duo sales were counted. Total revenue was $114.5 billion, up 12 percent. Apple expects December-quarter revenue to grow 7 to 10 percent, which would make it the biggest quarter in its history.

That strength gives Apple room to raise prices without scaring off buyers, which is another reason not to bet on cheaper iPhones in the near term. The open question is how long buyers keep absorbing them.